COVID-19: Viral Replication

Today is March 28, 2020. As I type this, the United States has 105,000 cases of COVID-19, and 1717 people have died (according to The United States now has more cases of COVID-19 than any other country, and has had more new cases identified 5 days in a row.

Our case count trajectory looks like this right now (data from Johns Hopkins University, presented by Statista):


The U.S. curve is on the left, in the black. We have had the highest case trajectory for 20 days now. We have experienced a doubling of COVID-19 cases every 3 days since we hit 100 cases (actually our doubling rate is less than 3 days, it is closer to 2.5 days, but I’ll round up to 3 days for the sake of simplicity).

I have prepared this doubling chart. This is what the number of U.S. cases and the number of U.S. fatalities will look like after each doubling:

If case counts continue doubling every three days, we will be at over 100 million cases in 30 days. I don’t expect that it will be that bad, and obviously I hope that that does not happen.

But case counts will continue to double. How quickly I don’t know, but there will be more doublings. Case counts and fatalities will continue to grow.

As they do, I am quarantined with my family. We wash our hands frequently. We scrub tabletops, door handles and light switches.

And I pray for all of us.



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