I am a bad predictor. I predict most things badly. Like sports, elections, the weather, and (in the short term) the stock market. I admit it, and I don’t spend money on my predictions.
I don’t do sports gambling, prediction markets, or day trading. I have no idea what tomorrow will bring. I note that because Americans wagered $166 billion in 2025 on sports gambling, with 2026 sports gambling projections to exceed $220 billion.
I also note that only 2-3% of people who gamble make money in the long term. The rest (97-98%) lose money. The house wins. Almost always.
I am a very bad predictor. I will continue to be a bad predictor. That is the only accurate prediction I make.
But just for fun….I have added three really bad predictions that I made: The Phillies 2008, Villanova men’s basketball 2016, and the Eagles 2017-2018.
I was wrong.
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On September 10, 2008, as I was getting ready to go to sleep, I told Theresa “the Phillies are done. I’m out”. At that point, the Phillies were 79-67 (a .541 winning percentage), and were 3 ½ games behind the New York Mets. Remember my prediction, “the Phillies are done”.
For the rest of September, the Phillies went 13-5.
In the NL Division Series, they beat Milwaukee 3 games to 1.
In the NL Championship Series, they beat the Dodgers 4 games to 1.
In the World Series, they beat Tampa Bay 4 games to 1.
From the moment I said “the Phillies are done” until they won the World Series, they went 24-6, which is an .800 record.
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Villanova men’s basketball team went to the 2016 Final Four in Houston. Villanova did not win their own conference championship. My prediction for Villanova that year was “no chance”. They faced Oklahoma in the NCAA semifinal game. They had earlier lost to Oklahoma 78-55 on December 7, 2015. So I was not too hopeful about their chances in the Final Four. Heather and I went to Houston, and I expected a blowout. What I did not expect was that Villanova did the blowing out, 95-51. If you don’t remember the Villanova buzzer beater versus North Carolina, go watch the video. So much for “no chance”.
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On December 10, 2017, the Philadelphia Eagles were playing the LA Rams. In the third quarter, Carson Wentz tore his ACL, his LCL, and damaged his meniscus. At the time, the Eagles were 11-2, with Dallas (at 7-6) the next closest team in the NFC East. With Carson Wentz out, I said “the Eagles season is over”. Remember my prediction: “the Eagles season is over”.
The Eagles went 2-1 the rest of the regular season (although Nick Foles was not so impressive).
They won their first playoff game against Atlanta 15-10, but only because Julius Jones failed to catch a touchdown catch at the endzone line with time running out.
In the NFC Championship Game versus Minnesota, the Vikings started the game with a touchdown drive where they gained yardage on every single play. Nine consecutive plays, with 4 of them gaining between 10-25 yards. The air went out of the stadium (I was there). I slumped in my seat, held my head in my hands, and thought “oh no”.
A few minutes later, the Eagles Patrick Robinson intercepted the Vikings QB, and from the moment Robinson touched that football, the Eagles outscored Minnesota 38-0.
Do I need to tell you that the Eagles won the Super Bowl versus the New England Patriots 41-33? Do I need to tell you that “41-33” is imprinted on my brain?
Maybe my prediction “the Eagles season is over” was wrong?
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