COVID-19: Will 1 Million Americans Die?

Today is November 28, 2020. It is two days after Thanksgiving. This was a Thanksgiving unlike any other. My friends and family generally stayed home this weekend, because of the pandemic.

We are now averaging at least 150,000 new cases a day, and at least 1,000 deaths a day due to COVID-19. About one week ago, we broke the 200,000 case barrier for the first time.

The latest case increase comes after Halloween, when we decided to get together for Halloween parties and infect each other with COVID.

What will happen to our case counts two weeks after Thanksgiving?

What will happen to our case counts two weeks after Christmas?

The total U.S. cases are above 13 million, and total U.S. fatalities are at 271,000. As you know if you read my blog, I have been keeping track of case counts and fatalities with a “Doubling Tracker”. This is the current version:

When I first created this in April, I received some criticism for putting ten “doublings” on the chart. I was told that that was unrealistic, sort of catastrophic. Now we are seven doublings in, with no sign of slowing down. In fact, we are speeding up. I posted this graph in a previous essay, from the New York Times:

So where do we go from here? This is our current situation:
1) We have stopped caring. Half of the population won’t even bother wearing a mask.
2) A vaccine hasn’t been approved yet.
3) Once a vaccine is approved, it will take months (not day or weeks) to distribute to everyone who wants to receive it.
4) The vaccine will require two doses, which will take more time to complete than a single-dose regimen.
5) Did I mention that half of the U.S. won’t wear a mask? Do you think that half of the U.S. is getting vaccinated?

So what does this pandemic look like six months from now, if case counts continue to rise (they will), it takes 6-9 months for half of the U.S. to get vaccinated, and the other half of the U.S. acts like super-spreaders?

What will our collective behavior look like after a vaccine is approved? Will our behavior get better, get worse, or stay the same?

What is the net effect of 175 million Americans not caring about COVID-19?

How about 1 million dead Americans?



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